Do you ever get the feeling that every storm this winter is the same?

2018-19 WINTER CHECKLIST:

  • Approaches from west
  • Lacks Nor'easter sex appeal
  • Puts down a few inches of cement along the coast
  • Crushes Caribou
  • Annoys Keith

RELATED: Annoying winter: Why every storm has been a mess

So, here we go again on my own.

After a beautiful Saturday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, clouds start thickening up from Southwest to Northeast. 

The snow should hold off until daybreak on Sunday, moving into Western and Southern Maine first.

NCM

At the front end, it'll be wet snow everywhere. Probably big fat flakes along the coastline.

But very quickly by the early afternoon warm air will burst in at the mid and low levels.

NCM

You can see how far that rain/snow line is being pushed by the afternoon. I had previously felt it was going to be a bit colder than models had forecast due to a strong cold air damming signature...but I don't have much ground to stand on anymore. All the models, including the mesoscale ones, are just torching us at 850 mb...making it impossible to hold onto to snow along the coast and even into Lewiston, Augusta and eventually Bangor.

NCM

The storm ends as light snow almost everywhere overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

Totals are similar in the foothills in the mountains but had to be significantly reduced along the coastline.

This annoys me because I felt good about a colder solution. But the goal of the map is not to make me feel warm and fuzzy about myself, the goal is to be right.

NCM

Stick with Cory and Ryan tomorrow just in case there are any last minute changes to the forecast. 

Follow me on Instagram...there won't be any weather or anything but there's plenty of pictures of my baby, my dog, and me shirtless: https://www.instagram.com/keithcarsonweather/