MAINE, USA — Sometimes it's better to get the inevitable over with. Like when I submit a video to win an Emmy. Since I'm not very good I just wait for the email telling me I lost ... it's the natural end result.
Maine winters are the same way. Sure, this has still been a very mild winter statistically (third warmest from Nov. 1 through today), but we all knew we weren't gonna be coasting through the rest of it like we did December and January.
So after two decent snow events in the past week, we've got another one cooking for Wednesday afternoon/evening.
There's nothing fancy about this storm, it's a warm front trying to lift through the state but with quite a bit of moisture "overrunning" while it does so.
Snow breaks out on Wednesday afternoon from southwest to northeast. Unfortunately, this means the evening commute will likely be impacted again, over southern Maine especially.
Now initially, this is all snow and it's not even close to being rain. Surface temperatures are likely to be in the 20s at the time the snow arrives.
By 10 p.m. (image above), it's thumping snow pretty good over the southern part of the state with lighter snow into Bangor.
Eventually, the warm front is going to lift through and try to change us over to rain. I DO think that will happen, but it'll be hard fought. That's largely because it will be very cold on Wednesday morning.
This model above is probably too cold (I hope so), but the idea is right ... the cold air will be strong and entrenched when this front arrives. This is one of those "experience" calls (Read: I'm old), and I'm skeptical the cold air will get pushed out of the way quite as fast as the models depict.
In any event, snow continues heavy overnight in most locations, with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour quite likely in spots. Southern coastal Maine likely flips over to rain or sleet at least around midnight to 1 a.m.
By 7 a.m., the rain/snow line is able to make some progress.
At this point, there will be a wide area of sleet with some plain rain along the coastline. Keep in mind this will be on top of snow accumulation, however, so a school delay or cancellation may be needed. (Back off me teachers, I swear ya'll want snow days more than your students).
This storm wraps up pretty quickly during the afternoon, and even the mountains could get some sleet and drizzle on the way out. But it won't really matter much.
Here's what I'm thinking for total snowfall amounts:
This is pretty much unchanged since our first stab at it, but I did shade Bangor into 3 to 6 inches instead of 6 to 12 inches just accounting for some decent mid-level warming there.
Follow Keith Carson on Instagram here.