Let's skip talking about the next two days because: 1) It's going to be cold which is boring and stinks and 2) Thursday is the elephant in the room.

There's already been quite a bit of buzz on social media about a developing storm system that will approach Maine on Thursday.

Even I have used words like “monster” to describe this system…and I stand by that. There's little doubt there will be an absolute bomb of a snowstorm over the North Atlantic on Thursday night.

The question is where EXACTLY will it be located.

Track is always important in forecasting a snowstorm, but it's often the difference between 3” and 5” or “all snow” vs “mixing with sleet.” In the case of this storm the track is the difference between ““5” of snow” and “20” and blizzard conditions.

Take a look at the EURO model “ensembles”, each one of those little “L”s indicates a different ensemble member. Ensemble members are basically the EURO model run over and over again with slightly different initial conditions. The idea is to get a view of the uncertainty level of a forecast.

Although the clustering is not the WORST I've ever seen; the difference between the “L” near Bar Harbor and the “L” 500 miles offshore is tremendous impact-wise.

So what do I think?

Right now I think we will end up in the middle; a moderate snowfall event with some pretty nasty winds. While we can't rule out a direct hit with direr direct impacts; time is running out for such a shift to occur in the guidance.

I actually had numbers on the map below and then realized, even for me, it's just too early to throw numbers around in a storm of this magnitude…the risk of misleading people in a dangerous fashion is too high.


The wind threat area is very important with this storm as gusts are currently forecast to exceed 55 MPH and could easily go higher if the storm ticks west a bit. Power outages would be a major concern as next weekend actually looks COLDER than this past weekend.

Timing, by the way, looks like snow developing early Thursday afternoon, reaching a peak on Thursday night and then simmering down on Friday midday.

Stay with us on this one.