It is estimated that about 80 percent of Zika infections are asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild that the disease is not detected. This means the number of cases reported by disease surveillance systems in the U.S. and across the world might be only a small fraction of the actual number of infections. In fact, it’s likely we are are underestimating imported cases in the U.S. and even likely some locally spread cases.
In this situation, mathematical and computational models that account for mosquito populations, human mobility, infrastructure and other factors that influence the spread of Zika are valuable because they can generate estimates of the full extent of the epidemic.
This is what our research group, made up of physicists, biostatisticians and computer scientists, has done for Zika. The Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEAM) can model the spread of Zika through countries and geographical regions.
Our model suggests that while more cases of Zika can be expected in the continental U.S., outbreaks will probably be small and are not projected to spread. By contrast, some countries, like Brazil, have already seen widespread outbreaks.
