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The odds of dying from a J&J vaccine-related blood clot vs dying from COVID-19

The news of the US J&J vaccine 'pause' was concerning to many, but what is the risk of the blood clot side effect vs the risk of COVID-19 in general?

PORTLAND, Maine — On Tuesday, the U.S. FDA and CDC recommended a "pause" of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine due to a rare blood clot reported in six women who were administered the shot. As of right now, one of those cases was fatal.

But what are the odds of dying from a J&J vaccine-related blood clot versus COVID-19 itself, based on your age?

Statistically speaking, the only way to compare this fairly is to compare the risk of contracting COVID-19 and then dying from COVID-19 to the risk presented from the J&J vaccine as we currently know it.

To accomplish this, we took the total U.S. COVID-19 deaths by each age group and divided by the population in the U.S. in that particular age group.

Note: CDC age data lags the current COVID-19 death count by almost 120,000, so we are slightly underestimating the risk of COVID in this graph. Also, population data is approximate to 2018.

Credit: NCM

What we end up with is that the risk of dying from COVID-19 is anywhere from 36 to 78,571 times HIGHER than the risk of dying from a J&J vaccine-related blood clot.