I'm going to skip the next couple of days (Summary: Snow squalls Friday night, colder than a witch's $%^& over the weekend, quiet on Monday), in favor of discussing in more depth what the people really want to know:
Will there be a significant Nor'easter next week?
On the synoptic, or large, scale the setup is ripe for a nice, juicy coastal storm. The trough is there, the cold air is there, and the mid level vorticity is there.
So I have confidence a large, powerful coastal storm will develop by Tuesday of next week. The difficult part is the track...
Over the past few days there have been a couple of major wobbles back in forth on the global models. Crush job one run, out to sea the next. Even as of this morning the EURO and the GFS had one fundamental difference..
The EURO (Left) had a normal trough, the GFS (Right, duh) had what's called a negative tilt. A negative tilt is exactly what it sounds like, a trough that "tilts" backwards to to speak...aka west. In this case the tilt of the trough is THE key because without a negative tilt the storm gains too much longitude and goes out to sea. WITH the negative tilt trough it gets sucked back west and we get crushed.
Also of note, negative tilt trough storms have a reputation for being particularly fierce due to the dynamics at play.
As of just an hour ago or so (2 PM) the latest EURO model came onboard with this negative tilt idea.
This development is good news for snow lovers, and bad news for spring lovers.
So, if the storm hits, how big are we talking? Well, with that position and that kind of low, it would definitely be a 6"+ event for most of the state. My gut is the coastline will do better than the mountains in this particular setup, just due to being closer to the moisture source.
How much more than 6"+? It's hard to say, we are still 5 days out...right on the edge of computer model voodoo land. No doubt the potential is there for over a foot in the sweet spot of this storm.
This is just ONE MODEL forecast...If you share the following map on social media I will hunt you down:
SO, WHAT'S THE CALL?
Reiterating that it's 5 days out, I still have some nagging doubt on the track being depicted today. I'm not sure why but the synoptic scale makes me think this thing will trend east (farther out to sea) as we get closer. If the models continue to lock in for a few more runs I might have to toss in my doubting cap...but I'm not ready to do so yet.
For now, pencil in significant snow on Tuesday into Wednesday...the data suggests nothing less. If my nagging doubt is right, we can always ramp down and I can gloat for the next month or so.