Yesterday at this time we were worrying about a hurricane hitting New England...not anymore. In just 24 hours all models have changed their tune, keeping Hurricane Matthew well to our south through the weekend.

(Photo: Levi Cowan)

The National Hurricane Center's official track rakes the Southeastern US with a powerful hurricane but Matthew isn't expected to get farther north than the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

(Photo: NWS)

So how did the models do an about face? As I mentioned yesterday, it all has to do with the size, strength and position of an approaching shortwave, or bundle of mid-level energy. That piece of the puzzle is now over the North American continent so we have some good upper air data being ingested by the various models. A minor differences can lead to a huge track shift. This is evident in recent runs of the European Model.

(Photo: WSI)

Notice the approaching shortwave was a little farther south and tilted back a little (negative tilt). This drew the hurricane north, threatening New England late in the weekend.

(Photo: WSI)

However, the most recent run of the European model now shows that same shortwave farther north and tilted forward, avoiding interaction with the system all together.

(Photo: NWS)

While it's not chiseled in stone yet, Matthew is looking like a miss and our desert-like, bone dry pattern will live on.

-Todd Gutner @ToddWCSH